Will the USD/JPY mid-rate published by the Bank of Japan at 17:00 on Oct 20, 2026 be weaker for the yen (higher USD/JPY) than the rate at 17:00 on Oct 19, 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yesyour pick50.2%$0.50
- No49.8%$0.50
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Forecast reasoning
The USD/JPY mid-rate stood at 158.16 yen per dollar at 17:00 on October 19, with the yen in a continued depreciation trend driven by high crude oil prices and concerns about Japan's trade deficit. The 50% probability reflects balanced forces: ongoing yen weakness favors a higher rate on October 20, but extremely low volatility (2.57% over two weeks) and intervention risks from Bank of Japan officials limit the magnitude of any single-day move.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Bank of Japan USD/JPY mid-rate published for 17:00 JST on October 20, 2026 is strictly greater than the Bank of Japan USD/JPY mid-rate published for 17:00 JST on October 19, 2026, with both rates published strictly after 2026-10-18T00:42:17.312Z and at or before 2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the Bank of Japan USD/JPY mid-rate published for 17:00 JST on October 20, 2026 is less than or equal to the Bank of Japan USD/JPY mid-rate published for 17:00 JST on October 19, 2026, with both rates published strictly after 2026-10-18T00:42:17.312Z and at or before 2026-10-20T16:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - The USD/JPY mid-rate is the Bank of Japan's official daily spot mid-rate (mid of bid and offer) for the Tokyo interbank market, published each business day on the Bank of Japan Foreign Exchange Rates (Daily) statistics page. A higher USD/JPY value means a weaker yen. - If either the October 19 or October 20 rate is not published (e.g., due to a Japanese public holiday or non-business day), the market is unresolvable on the data available.
Oct 20, 2026, 8:00 AM UTC