Will Trump visit Shenzhen before the end of 2026?
Delphi’s forecast
- Yes86.3%$0.86
- No13.8%$0.14
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Forecast reasoning
Trump is officially scheduled to visit Shenzhen November 17-19, 2026 for the APEC summit, confirmed by White House announcements on October 11. This would make him the first sitting US president to visit Shenzhen. The visit is planned to occur 79 days from today, well before the December 31 deadline.
Settlement
Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if Donald Trump makes a confirmed, in-person visit to Shenzhen, China, strictly after 2026-09-30T18:45:47.218Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z, as corroborated by credible news reporting or official government sources. - "No": Wins if no such confirmed, in-person visit by Donald Trump to Shenzhen occurs strictly after 2026-09-30T18:45:47.218Z and at or before 2027-01-01T00:00:00.000Z. Clarifications: - A visit counts only if Trump is physically present in Shenzhen; transit stops, visits to other Chinese cities, or unconfirmed or announced-but-not-completed trips do not qualify.
Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM UTC