“Will the first Census Q3 2026 release report seasonally adjusted retail e-commerce share ≥17.5% (Table 1, one-decimal) by Nov 20, 2026 23:59 UTC?” on Delphi

Will the first Census Q3 2026 release report seasonally adjusted retail e-commerce share ≥17.5% (Table 1, one-decimal) by Nov 20, 2026 23:59 UTC?

EconomicsForecast onlyLive data

Delphi’s forecast

Yes8.5%$0.09
No91.5%$0.92

Forecast only. Not tradable.

This quote has expired. Ask again for a live price.

Forecast reasoning

Q2 2026 e-commerce share was 17.1%, requiring 0.4 percentage points growth in one quarter to hit 17.5%, roughly double the typical 0.1-0.3 point quarterly pace shown in historical data. The Q3 report releases November 19, one day before the deadline.