This market was automatically settled Nov 11, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC

Will SARB’s official rate show a weaker rand against the US dollar on Wed 11 Nov 2026 than the business day before?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x14c0...2956 • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:Yes

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

Yes50.0%
$0.50/share
No50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 10, 2026, 2:57 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 11, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 11, 2026, 6:05 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

Yes

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's tackle this. The market question is whether the SARB's official rate on November 11, 2026, will show a weaker rand against the USD compared to the previous day. The criteria are based on the EXCX135D series. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both provided data from the SARB API. Resolver 1 states that the rate on the 11th is 16.5462, up from 16.3515 on the 10th. Since a higher value in rand per dollar means the rand is weaker, this would qualify as a "Yes" answer. The source is the SARB WebIndicators API. Resolver 2 confirms the same data points. They also note that the series is the correct one as per the market criteria. The comparison at four decimals shows an increase. Their reasoning aligns with the definition of a weaker rand given in the clarifications. They also concluded "Yes" with answer 0. Both resolvers agree on the numbers and the conclusion. The key point is that the 11th's rate is higher, which means the rand is weaker. Since both use the official SARB data, which is authoritative, there's strong evidence here. The market closed at 06:00 UTC, but the data was published by the current time of 18:03 UTC. However, the guidelines state that evidence after market close is still valid as long as it's credible. The resolvers' sources are reliable, so the answer should be 0. </think> ANSWER: Yes

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": The South African Reserve Bank’s weighted-average rand per US dollar rate (series EXCX135D, measured at about 10:30 SAST / 08:30 UTC and published later the same day) for 2026-11-11 is higher than the most recent rate before it (normally 2026-11-10), compared at four decimals. - "No": The 2026-11-11 rate is equal or lower than the most recent rate before it (normally 2026-11-10), compared at four decimals. Clarifications: - A higher number of rand per dollar means a weaker rand. - The 08:30 UTC reference is the measurement instant for the weighted average of banks' rates, not the publication time; the figure is expected to appear between 2026-11-11T08:00:00Z and 2026-11-11T16:00:00Z.

Data Sources:
https://custom.resbank.co.za/SarbWebApi/WebIndicators/Shared/GetTimeseriesObservations/EXCX135D/2026-11-10/2026-11-11https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/what-we-do/statistics/key-statistics/selected-historical-rates

Creator Stats


Creator:0x14c0...2956
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created