This market was automatically settled Nov 12, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

Will fewer than 195,000 Americans file new jobless claims in the week ending Sat 7 Nov 2026?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x14c0...2956 • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 9, 2026, 2:47 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 12, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 12, 2026, 5:34 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if fewer than 195,000 Americans will file new jobless claims in the week ending November 7, 2026. The resolution criteria specify that the answer is "Yes" if the advance seasonally adjusted figure from the US Labor Department's report on November 12 is below 195,000, and "No" otherwise. Resolver 1 says the advance figure was 200,000, which is above 195,000, so it's "No" (answer 1). Resolver 2 also found the same figure of 200,000 from the same DOL report and FRED's data, leading to the same conclusion of "No". Both resolvers agree on the source and the value. The evidence from both seems solid, as they reference official publications from the DOL and FRED, which are credible sources. Since both resolvers are pointing to the same correct data and the numbers are clearly over the threshold, the market should resolve as "No". No conflicting info here, so the answer should be 1. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": The US Labor Department’s weekly unemployment insurance claims report released Thu 12 Nov 2026 puts the advance seasonally adjusted initial claims figure for the week ending 2026-11-07 below 195000. - "No": That advance figure is 195000 or higher. Clarifications: - Use the advance seasonally adjusted figure as first released, not a later revision or the unadjusted count.

Data Sources:
https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdfhttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ICSA

Creator Stats


Creator:0x14c0...2956
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created