This market was automatically settled Nov 13, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC

Will Pakistan’s weekly price index for essentials (SPI) rise in the week ending Thu 12 Nov 2026?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x14c0...2956 • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

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Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

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Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 9, 2026, 2:47 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 13, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 13, 2026, 2:06 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if Pakistan's weekly price index for essentials (SPI) will rise in the week ending on November 12, 2026. They provided two resolver reports and some resolution criteria. First, I need to understand the resolution criteria. The answer is "Yes" if the SPI increased compared to the previous week, and "No" if it decreased or stayed the same. The key is the headline week-on-week change for the combined SPI. Looking at Resolver 1's report, they mention that the SPI for the week ended November 12, 2026, is 372.90, which is a -0.46% change from the previous week. The value went down from 374.61 to 372.90. So Resolver 1 concludes it's "No" because the index decreased. Resolver 2 provides similar information. They reference the PBS page and the Executive Summary PDF, both confirming the same numbers: a decrease of 0.46% with the SPI dropping from 374.61 to 372.90. They also cite a secondary source, ARY News, which aligns with the same figures. Resolver 2 also concludes "No" based on the resolution criteria. Both resolvers agree that the SPI decreased, so the answer should be "No" (option 1). The evidence from both is consistent and points to the same conclusion. I check if there's any conflicting information, but there's none. The reports are from the official Pakistan Bureau of Statistics and a secondary credible news source, which strengthens their agreement. The market closes on 2026-11-13 at 04:00 UTC, but the resolution data was released on the 13th, which is after the market close but within the expected timeframe as per the criteria. I remember that the Timing rules state evidence after market close is acceptable as long as it's credible, so that's not an issue here. Since both resolvers independently confirm the SPI decreased, there's no reason to doubt their conclusion. There's no mention of any issues with data accessibility or ambiguity in the reports. The answer is clear. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics’ Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) release for the week ended 2026-11-12 reports that the combined SPI increased compared with the previous week. - "No": That release reports the SPI decreased or was unchanged. Clarifications: - Use the headline week-on-week change for the combined SPI as stated in the release text, not a single item or income group. - PBS publishes the weekly SPI for the week ended Thursday on Friday; this release is expected between 2026-11-13T05:00:00Z and 2026-11-13T11:00:00Z.

Data Sources:
https://www.pbs.gov.pk/weekly-sensitive-price-indicator-spi-for-the-week-ended-on-12-11-2026/https://www.pbs.gov.pk/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/Executive-Summary-SPI-Report_12.11.2026.pdf

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