Will OpenAI publicly announce GPT-6 by December 31, 2026?

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Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

By: 0x2Af8...b212

By: 0x2Af8...b212 • Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

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Market Stats

Trading Fee:2.00%

Liquidity:$0.00

Volume:$0.00

Created:Aug 14, 2026, 9:30 PM UTC

Trading Closes:Dec 31, 2026, 10:59 PM UTC

Earliest settlement:Jan 1, 2027, 10:59 AM UTC

Settles within 48 hours of trading close.

AI Settlement

Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5

Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if OpenAI makes a public announcement explicitly identifying a model as "GPT-6" on or before December 31, 2026 (UTC), via its official newsroom, blog, or research pages. - "No": Wins if no such public announcement has been made by OpenAI on or before December 31, 2026 (UTC). Clarifications: - A qualifying announcement must use the name "GPT-6" and originate directly from OpenAI (e.g., openai.com/news, openai.com/research, or an official OpenAI press release). Teaser posts, unconfirmed leaks, third-party reporting, or references to intermediate versioned models (e.g., GPT-5.x) do not qualify.

Data Sources:

OpenAI NewsroomOpenAI Research Releases

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