Will Democrats gain control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms?

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-08T13:13:35.177Z and at or before 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z, Democrats are projected or confirmed to have won 218 or more seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections, giving them a majority in the 120th Congress. - "No": Wins if, strictly after 2026-10-08T13:13:35.177Z and at or before 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z, Democrats are not projected or confirmed to have won 218 or more seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections, leaving Republicans or another party with a majority or the chamber without a declared Democratic majority. Clarifications: - The qualifying window runs strictly after 2026-10-08T13:13:35.177Z and at or before 2026-11-03T00:00:00.000Z. A Democratic majority is defined as Democrats winning 218 or more of the 435 voting seats in the U.S. House. Seat projections or calls issued by major election-results authorities (e.g., the Associated Press) count as confirmation; a final certified count is not required if a credible majority projection has been issued within the window. - If no credible projection of House majority control has been issued within the window, "No" wins, as the burden of proof is on Democrats gaining control being confirmed by market close.