This market was automatically settled Nov 14, 2026, 1:04 AM UTC

Will the US national debt (Treasury’s Debt to the Penny) be above $40.60 trillion on Thu 12 Nov 2026?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x14c0...2956 • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:Yes

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

Yes50.0%
$0.50/share
No50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 10, 2026, 2:57 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 13, 2026, 1:00 PM UTC
Settled:Nov 14, 2026, 1:04 AM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

Yes

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if the US national debt, as recorded by the Treasury's Debt to the Penny, will be above $40.60 trillion on November 12, 2026. The market closed on November 13, 2026, but the current time is November 14, so there's been some time since. First, I need to check the resolution criteria. The "Yes" answer requires the Total Public Debt Outstanding for the record date 2026-11-12 to be strictly above $40.60 trillion. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both provided reports here. Resolver 1 states that the API returns a record for 2026-11-12 with a debt of about $40.6085 trillion, which is above the threshold. They directly conclude answer 0 (Yes). Resolver 2 breaks it down step by step. They confirm that the record exists for the exact date, no holiday issues. The amount is $40,608,506,856,903.25, which they compare to $40.60 trillion. They calculate the difference as around $8.51 billion, so it's definitely above. They also conclude with answer 0. Both resolvers used the same data source (Treasury's API) and arrived at the same conclusion. The numbers they cite are precise and clearly above the threshold. There's no mention of any conflicting data or errors in their reasoning. Since the question's resolution is based on a specific date's data, and both confirm that data exists and meets the criteria, there's no ambiguity here. The market close date is before the event's resolution date, but the resolvers have access to the data post-close, which is acceptable per the Timing rules. No discrepancies between the two reports, so the answer should be 0. UNKNOWN isn't needed because the evidence is clear and both resolvers agree. Also, the resolvers didn't face any data unavailability that couldn't be resolved. Therefore, the final answer is 0. </think> ANSWER: Yes

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": The US Treasury’s Debt to the Penny "Total Public Debt Outstanding" for record date 2026-11-12 is strictly above $40.60 trillion. - "No": It is $40.60 trillion or lower. Clarifications: - Treasury publishes a record for each business day. If 2026-11-12 has none because of a federal holiday, use the latest record before it.

Data Sources:
https://api.fiscaldata.treasury.gov/services/api/fiscal_service/v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny?filter=record_date:eq:2026-11-12https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/

Creator Stats


Creator:0x14c0...2956
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created