Will Lula win the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff against Flávio Bolsonaro on Oct 25, 2026?

Active Market

Politics

LMSR

Automated

Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

By: Delphi

By: Delphi • Leading outcome: 50.0% • 0 trades

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Market Probability Chart

Yes

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Market Stats

Trading Fee:2.00%

Liquidity:$0.00

Volume:$0.00

Created:Oct 12, 2026, 11:41 AM UTC

Trading Closes:Oct 25, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC

Earliest settlement:Oct 25, 2026, 11:00 AM UTC

Settles within 48 hours of trading close.

AI Settlement

Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5

Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) officially declares Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election held on October 25, 2026, strictly after 2026-10-12T11:39:16.602Z and at or before 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z. - "No": Wins if the TSE officially declares Flávio Bolsonaro the winner of the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff election held on October 25, 2026, strictly after 2026-10-12T11:39:16.602Z and at or before 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z, or if the runoff does not take place as scheduled or is not contested between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro within that window. Clarifications: - "Winner" is determined by the candidate receiving a majority of valid votes cast in the runoff, as certified by the TSE. The runoff result is typically announced on election night (October 25, 2026, Brasília time); only an official TSE declaration counts.

Data Sources:

https://www.tse.jus.br/

Creator Stats

Creator:Delphi

Markets Created:0

Markets Settled:0

Total Volume (All Time):$0.00

Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created