This market was automatically settled Nov 4, 2026, 5:06 PM UTC

Will AAA's national average price for regular gas on Wed 4 Nov 2026 be higher than on Tue 3 Nov 2026?

Settled Market
Economics
LMSR
Automated
By: 0x14c0...2956 • 0 trades

Market Settled

This market has been resolved.

Resolved Outcome:No

You did not have a position in this market.

Final Outcome

No50.0%
$0.50/share
Yes50.0%
$0.50/share

Market Probability Chart

Yes
No

My Position

No positions are open on this market.

Market Stats


Trading Fee:2.00%
Liquidity:$0.00
Volume:$0.00
Created:Nov 3, 2026, 5:09 PM UTC
Trading Closed:Nov 4, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC
Settled:Nov 4, 2026, 5:06 PM UTC

AI Settlement


Analyst Models:Claude Opus 4.8, GPT 5.5
Judge Model:Qwen3 32B Verifiable (via REE)
Final Outcome:

No

Settlement Reasoning:

<think> Okay, let's take a look at this market question. The user is asking if AAA's national average price for regular gas on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, will be higher than the price on Tuesday, November 3, 2026. The resolution criteria clearly state that "Yes" means the price on the 4th is strictly higher than the 3rd, and "No" is if it's equal or lower. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both provided their analysis. Resolver 1 found the Current Avg. for the 4th as $4.1239 and the Yesterday Avg. for the 3rd as $4.1493. Since $4.1239 is lower than $4.1493, they concluded "No." Resolver 2 also checked the same figures from the AAA website and came to the same conclusion, pointing out the exact prices again and stating that the 4th's price wasn't strictly higher. The key here is verifying the numbers they cited. Both resolvers reference the same data source, gasprices.aaa.com, and both report the same figures. The resolution criteria specify using the Regular column and comparing the two dates at published precision. The figures they provided are to four decimal places, which matches the precision required. There's no mention of any conflicting sources or additional data that would suggest a different outcome. Also, the market closed on the 4th at 05:00 UTC, and the current time given is November 4, 2026, 17:04:27 UTC. That's well after the market close, and the AAA figures for the 4th were already published by the time trading closed. Therefore, the evidence they used is valid even if it's after the close time, as per the timing rules. No other resolvers are needed here because both existing ones agree and the data is clear. I don't see any errors in their reasoning. The answer should be "No" since the price on the 4th is lower than on the 3rd. </think> ANSWER: No

Settlement Criteria:

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": AAA's published national average price for Regular (gasprices.aaa.com) for 2026-11-04 is strictly higher than its published national average for 2026-11-03, compared at the published precision in dollars per gallon. - "No": AAA's published national average for Regular for 2026-11-04 is equal to or lower than its published national average for 2026-11-03. Clarifications: - Each date's figure is AAA's single daily national average published early that morning, not an intraday or all-day average. On 2026-11-04 AAA's "Current Avg." is the 2026-11-04 figure and its "Yesterday Avg." is the 2026-11-03 figure. - Use the Regular column of AAA's national average table, not a state or metro average and not GasBuddy.

Data Sources:
https://gasprices.aaa.com/https://gasprices.aaa.com/news/

Creator Stats


Creator:0x14c0...2956
Markets Created:0
Markets Settled:0
Total Volume (All Time):$0.00
Settle Percentage:0%

Less than 5 total markets created