Will the UK Autumn Budget 2026 include an increase to Capital Gains Tax (CGT)?

Yes

<think> Okay, let's tackle this. The market question is whether the UK Autumn Budget 2026 includes an increase to Capital Gains Tax (CGT). The resolution criteria are specific about what constitutes an "increase," allowing for structural changes that raise the CGT burden, not just rate hikes. Resolver 1 and Resolver 2 both point to the reduction of the Business Asset Disposal Relief (BADR) lifetime limit from £1 million to £500,000. BADR is a CGT relief where gains above the limit are taxed at standard rates. By cutting this limit, the effective CGT liability for some taxpayers increases because more gains will be taxed at 24% instead of 18%. According to the resolution criteria, this structural change that increases the CGT burden qualifies as an "increase," even if headline rates remain the same. Both resolvers cite official HM Treasury documents and accompanying materials from the 2026 Budget, confirming this change. They both conclude with "ANSWER: 0," which corresponds to "Yes." The key here is that the market's "Yes" option includes structural changes that raise the CGT burden. The BADR reduction meets this definition. Since both resolvers present authoritative evidence from the official sources listed in the resolution criteria and consistently interpret the criteria correctly, their agreement is strong. There's no conflicting information or ambiguity in their findings. Therefore, the answer should be "0" (Yes). </think> ANSWER: Yes

Resolution criteria: - "Yes": Wins if the UK Autumn Budget 2026 (delivered on 28 October 2026) explicitly announces an increase to Capital Gains Tax — whether to one or more CGT rates, the annual exempt amount reduction that raises effective CGT liability, or an equivalent structural change that increases the CGT burden — as confirmed in the official HM Treasury Budget document or accompanying tax-measure notes published on GOV.UK on Budget day. - "No": Wins if the official HM Treasury Budget document and accompanying tax-measure notes published on GOV.UK on 28 October 2026 contain no announcement of an increase to Capital Gains Tax rates or any equivalent structural change that raises the CGT burden. Clarifications: - A CGT "increase" means any upward change to the headline CGT rates (basic, higher, or additional rate) applicable to any asset class, or any legislative change that directly increases the effective CGT charge on gains. Reductions to the annual exempt amount that were already legislated before Budget day, and changes to other taxes, do not count.